80% Chance of Becoming a Tropical Cyclone - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

Invest 93

80% Chance of Becoming a Tropical Cyclone

Posted: Updated:
 Tuesday, July 29 


In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is One area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours. 

Invest 93-L (Tropical Wave)
A broad area of Low Pressure is located about 1500 miles East Southeast of the Windward Islands and is producing a large area of shower & thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is associated with a Tropical Wave (embedded in the Monsoon trough) and has continued to slowly develop during the past couple of days. 
This Tropical Wave contains a clearly defined circulation. We are also seeing the different levels and characteristics line up with tropical development. 850mb Vorticity continues to slightly intensify as wind speeds are picking up around the LLC (Low Level Circulation). Rain bands of moderate convection are developing within this disturbance. 
There is some dry air continuing to work its way into the storm. This is one of the main variables that is inhibiting rapid development. 
Ahead of this Tropical wave we are seeing conditions that are conducive for development. This means that warmer SSTs (Sea Surface Temps) and moderate Shear is going to lead to a high chance for continued development through the next couple of days. This environment is primed for the further development of this Tropical Wave. 
As this system moves generally West at around 15mph, it will continue to "Ride" the Southern edge of a broad ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. 

Multiple forecast models are being run on this system and all of them show some development during the next 48 hours, along with the continued Westward track. 

I will continue to monitor this system as it develops.

Tropical formation chance through 48 hrs... HIGH... 70%
Tropical formation chance through 5 days... HIGH... 80%

Otherwise, there are Two other Tropical Waves on the board. However no other development is expected during the next 48 hours.

For a continued look into the tropics and preparedness tips, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.


Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger

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