There is One area of interest in the Atlantic Basin.
Bertha (Tropical Storm)
The Center of T.S. Bertha is located 70 miles NE of Barbados, 150 miles ESE of Martinique and is centered at 14.0N & 58.9W. There are max sustained winds of 50mph and a Min central pressure of 1008mb (29.77'"). This system is moving WNW (295) at about 21mph.
A series of Watches and Warnings are in effect for many of the Caribbean Islands that are in the path of the Tropical Storm.
Bertha remains disorganized this morning with satellite imagery showing a well defined LLC (Low Level Circulation). This circulation consists of low level clouds swirling. The LLC is exposed on the Western side. This means that some dry air is being pulled into the heart of the storm on a few different levels. It also means the the LLC & the Lat/Long (location) is removed to the West of the convective mass that is most visible on satellite imagery. There has been more organization & convection occurring in the Western half of Bertha during the past couple of hours. This may be an indication of continued development.
Bertha is currently "riding the edge" of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This large ridge of high pressure is anchored over the Atlantic Ocean and provides a reliable option for the possible forecast path of this storm. During the next 48 hours, Bertha will ride the edge of this high and encounter some dry air & shear aloft. This combination will keep Bertha from rapid intensification.
The most recent Hurricane Hunter flight reported that maximum sustained winds did increase by 5 mph (50mph) with higher gusts. Upper-level winds are not favorable for additional strengthening. This will contribute to very little strengthening during the next 48 hours.
Bertha's general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. It will pass North of Barbados during the next several hours and move through the Central Lesser Antilles, tonight. Then the storm will approach the Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico on Saturday.
After clearing the Caribbean Islands, Bertha will turn more toward the NW and North as a cold front begins to control the forward direction of the newly formed Tropical Storm. At this point, model consensus shows that Bertha will re-curve back into the Atlantic, becoming a "Fish Storm" (Never making significant impact on the mainland). However, the Caribbean islands will experience strong winds, heavy rainfalls and Tropical Storm force conditions.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 5 days.
~Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger