There is One area of interest in the Atlantic Basin.
Bertha (Tropical Storm)
The Center of T.S. Bertha is located 200 miles East of Cape Hatteras, NC and is centered at 34.8N & 71.9W. There are max sustained winds of 60mph and a Min central pressure of 1006mb (29.71'"). This system is moving NNE (025) at about 22mph.
There are NO coastal Watches or Warnings in effect associated with Bertha.
After Satellite and Current Obs analysis, there is a very disorganized appearance on Satellite this afternoon.
Overnight Bertha began to move into an environment that is not conducive for development. In fact, the storm remains under the influence of a stationary front over the Atlantic Coastline. As the storm continues to move NNE and draws closer the stationary front, vertical shear is taking its toll on the structure of the Bertha. This is displacing deep convection to the East of the LLC (Low Level Circulation).
It is possible that due to the expected increase of shear, we will see Bertha ripped apart and lose most of the convection associated with it. This doesn't happen too often but it's not unheard of. If this happens the storm will continue to produce high winds, choppy surf and significant wave heights even after thunderstorm & shower activity dies off.
The system is forecast to merge with the front and fizzle out. During the next 36 hours we should see Bertha become post tropical.
Bertha is moving NNE and a turn to he NE & ENE is expected during the next 48 hours as the forward speed increases.
A slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.
Swells generated by Bertha will continue to affect portions of the coasts of North & South Carolina today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf & rip current conditions.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 5 days.
~Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger