In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is One area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.
Invest 94-L (Tropical Wave) A broad area of Low Pressure is located a couple hundred miles Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with Max sustained winds of 25mph. There is not much organization and only a little shower activity associated with this system. There is stronger convection in the SE corner of the center of low pressure. Tropical models that are being run for this tropical wave have the system moving West at about 15mph through the next several days. This track takes Invest 94 along the southern edge of a ridge of high pressure. Development will be slow to occur and we have been watching this Tropical Wave as it rolled off the West Coast of Africa. During the next 48 hours not much organization or intensification will take place. However we this storm is projected to begin taking shape from days 3-5. I will continue to monitor this system as it develops.
Tropical formation chance through 48 hrs... HIGH... <10% Tropical formation chance through 5 days... HIGH... 30%
Otherwise, there is are 3 other Tropical Waves on the board. However the other three disturbances are not showing much potential for development before moving inland and dissipating.
1) A Tropical Wave in the SW GoM (Gulf of Mexico) is producing a lot of shower and thunderstorm activity and will move inland (over Mexico) within the next 48 hours.
2) A Tropical Wave in the SE GoM & NW Caribbean is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula and is producing significant thunderstorm activity with a developing LLC (Low Level Circulation) and rotation. This system is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula and is not expected to develop during the next 48 hours.
3) A Tropical Wave over the Caribbean Islands (stretched over the Western Atlantic) is continuing to move West and into the Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is not very organized and will be moving into an area that has some upper-level shear and gusty winds. There is some room for development. However any organization or increase in intensity will be slow to occur.
Elsewhere, development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, tracking maps and preparedness tips, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.