Goodbye to June and hello to July

Published: Jun. 30, 2017 at 6:59 PM CDT
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June 2017 is in the history book now and it turned out about two degrees lower than average. But the month was wet with 6.35 inches measured at the KALB-TV studios in downtown Alexandria. Southern Louisiana was the wettest with more than three times normal rainfall in places. Simmesport, in Avoyelles Parish, observed 19.26 inches of rain for the month, making it the wettest point in central Louisiana.

Let's look ahead to July 2017. Overall, the month is expected to be near average in temperatures and a tad below what is typical for rainfall. As usual, the outlook takes into account model forecasts, analog years, and historical trends. Here are some of the highlights:

-The month is expected to be dominated by the typical regimes, which include the sea-breeze which produces scattered showers and t-storms regularly high pressure ridging aloft which regulates the coverage of convection and temperatures.

-One caveat will be the wildcard: a tropical system which can bring twice the month's rain in one day. While it is possible, forecasters cannot reliably predict the occurrence and movement of tropical systems in the long range.

-Folks are also wondering about if central Louisiana will get caught in the grips of a heat wave this July. It has already happened over the Midwest, Northeast, and the Desert Southwest. These warm highs aloft will meander around the Northern Hemisphere and so it is a low possibility that the Summer of 2017 could have a hot moment here in central Louisiana as it would push thermometers past the century mark.