Heavy rain/severe weather possible tomorrow: What you need to know

High pressure will hang on one more day before a strong storm system begins to develop tomorrow. An upper-level trough will begin to work over the area tomorrow, which will enhance winds aloft. This will add to the amount of wind shear that is in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, at the surface, a low pressure area will begin to form over eastern Texas. This low pressure will advance a warm front northward through the area tomorrow morning, as it moves northeastward through the day. This will bring warm, moist air in the lower-levels of the atmosphere.

These ingredients should provide for, at the very least, a slight chance for severe storms. Early in the day, storms will be scattered in nature, but storms that do form will be capable of producing large hail and strong winds. Later in the evening, between 6-10pm, a squall line will work across the area. With this line of storms, hail and damaging winds will be the primary risks. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but the chance for tornadoes is lower.

This system could also produce high rainfall amounts. There will be two separate bouts of heavy storm activity coming in. One will be early in the morning, while the second will be later at night. Recent models have trended in the direction of the first round of storms staying to our north, mainly across northern Louisiana. This would at least save us from the heavy rainfall early in the day. The second complex will come in and drop another inch or so of rain. Areas that receive both rounds of storms could see rain accumulations on the order of 2-4 inches. This would not be a good scenario for central Louisiana, as most areas are already saturated with the ground having a low water tolerance.

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier