May outlook: will we be able to dry out?

Published: Apr. 30, 2017 at 6:24 PM CDT
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April 2017 was warm and wet. The month averaged several degrees above the 30-year benchmark and the monthly rainfall was enough for the 2017 version of April to crack the top ten list. The 10.90 inches of rain at International Airport (AEX) makes April 2017 the eighth wettest on record. Interestingly, the month began with severe weather and flooding on April 2, which included the tornado in Alexandria. And the month concluded with severe weather and flooding on the 30th.

Will May 2017 reverse these trends? My guess is that it will. Here are some of the highlights I see for the month based on model forecasts, trends, and analog data.

...Look for the month to begin wet with significant rain during the first week.

...Following the wet start, rainfall will be less than is typical. This should make May 2017 near normal for rainfall.

...The first part of the month will be cooler than average with several fronts.

...By the middle and latter parts of the month, temperatures will rebound to near normal. If this occurs, May 2017 will likely be a bit cooler than normal.

...In the Equatorial Pacific Ocean the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) should remain in a neutral phase.

...Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain above average close to shore but near average over most of the open Gulf well away from land.

Hopefully, May will be a "kinder" and gentler month than April.