A strong storm system is developing across the lower-plains today, already producing the threat for severe weather to our north. A surface low pressure will begin to develop across central Texas tonight and tomorrow, moving northeastward through tomorrow and Sunday. Out ahead of it, warm air is being pumped off the Gulf of Mexico, along with moisture. South winds will continue to be very strong for this afternoon, sustaining in the 13-26 mph range, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Winds tomorrow will be just as strong, with more warmth and moisture coming into the area.
A piece of atmospheric lift, which will move through tomorrow afternoon, may be enough to produce a few scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. The atmosphere will be juiced up, so any storms that do manage to get going could get strong to severe. These storms would be capable of producing hail and damaging wind. Storms, and the threat for severe weather, appear more likely across eastern Texas tomorrow.
By tomorrow night and Sunday morning, a surface cold front will begin to work towards Louisiana. A line of storms should begin to develop across eastern Texas, moving into Louisiana during the early morning hours of Sunday. As it stands now, storm timing appears to be from 4am until about 11am, but that could certainly change. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and the possibility for isolated tornadoes. The threat appears to be a slight one at the moment, but this could get upgraded as the event draws closer. The storm system will be strengthening as it moves through, which sometimes can cause systems to over-achieve, or take full advantage of atmospheric ingredients, as they move through.
Another aspect of this system appears to be the threat for heavy rain. With a surface low moving northeastward, away from the area, the line of storms may slow down significantly as it moves through Sunday morning. This could allow from the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts.
We should know more by tomorrow evening, but as of now, it's just something to be aware of. Keep your weather radios on the day of the event and keep it tuned to KALB for the latest breaking weather information.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier