NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

GRETNA, La. (KPLC) - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters are predicting above-normal activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

NOAA predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes.

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

Officials announced this year’s predictions from Jefferson Parish as we near the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Officials said NOAA’s models have improved significantly in the past two decades, allowing the agency to issue storm surge and flood warnings sooner and give people more time to evacuate.

“We are actually losing more people to rip currents than to storm surge,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said.

New technology will now allow the NWS to issue warnings, watches and cones 72 hours before a storm even develops.

NOAA is also working on flood inundation mapping, and officials hope to have the full country modeled by 2026. This allows the NWS to alert the public about what areas will flood days in advance, a development that saved lives during Hurricane Helene.

“We’re ready for this,” Graham said. “We’re equipped with the best forecast models we’ve ever had.”